Based in Sydney, Australia, Foundry is a blog by Rebecca Thao. Her posts explore modern architecture through photos and quotes by influential architects, engineers, and artists.

Episode 27 - Big Algorithm, Fat Tails, and Converging Priors

Episode 27 - Big Algorithm, Fat Tails, and Converging Priors

Nassim Taleb

Criticism of P-Values: A paper, and a blog post/video explaining the paper

Tweet on Bayesian Priors that don’t have convergent posteriors
The idea behind “Bayesian” approaches is that if 2 pple have different priors, they will eventually converge to the same estimation, via updating. A “wrong” prior is therefore OK.
Under fat tails, if you have the wrong prior, you never get there. (Taleb & Pilpel, 2004)
Gabish?

Video on Problems with Probability

Steven Pinker

Video that mentions all the stats about the world getting better:

Previous Episodes

Episode 9 discusses another idea in Taleb’s writings, Lindy’s Law.

Episode 0 is where I define and explain Bayes Rule.

Episode 21 is where I go into more depth on the justification of Bayesian inference.

Episode 28 - Alex Jones, Jack Dorsey, and the Censorious Social Media Reporters

Episode 28 - Alex Jones, Jack Dorsey, and the Censorious Social Media Reporters

Episode 26 - @chrismessina on Conversational Commerce, Relationship Design, and the Future of Brands

Episode 26 - @chrismessina on Conversational Commerce, Relationship Design, and the Future of Brands